fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo
There are other player-tracking statistics we believe could be highly helpful to RAPTOR, especially more detailed measures of on-ball defense, so we hope to be able to revisit RAPTOR as additional data becomes available. For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each… 2019-20 NBA Predictions. Let’s look at the correlations among our four candidate predictors and response variable: On the last point, it seems that FiveThirtyEight uses a very simple method to map point spreads to win probabilities: Based on this, I’m comfortable completely dropping the win probability variables from subsequent analyses. Score: Bucks 115, Raptors 105. But these are the highlights: The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, sports, science and life. We’ll have more ways for readers to see and use RAPTOR soon. correctly predicted had an edge over the Golden State Warriors, didn’t fully believe the projection ourselves at the time, What The COVID-19 Vaccine Means For The Political Battles To Come. Re: 538 Elo forecast gives Raptors highest chance of winning finals (31%) Post #35 » by Harcore Fenton Mun » Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:49 am Really, I hate these things. Standard deviations were 12.7 for RAPTOR and 12.8 for ELO, so similar precision. Namely, these statistics assume that player performance is largely linear and additive, that is, that you can roughly add up the ratings from individual players to project team performance. 5, 2015. RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic.We’re pretty excited about it. Contribute to fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub. Ideally, the distribution of residuals should be centered at 0 (accurate) and as narrow as possible (precise). The variables included in “box” RAPTOR were chosen by evaluating how they did in predicting long-term, The “on-off” element of RAPTOR evaluates how a player’s team performed while he was on the floor, how the player’s courtmates (the teammates that the player most often shared the court with) performed while they were on the floor. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played, regular season and playoffs combined. Plus-minus statistics have certain inherent limitations, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too. I’ve started collecting data to answer (3), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far. Let’s look at the prognostic value of each algorithm separately: The tendency for FiveThirtyEight to overweight home court advantage is clear here, as the y-intercept is negative for both algorithms. The Best Players by WAR Not in the Baseball Hall of Fame, The Comfort of Watching Sports in the Era of Trump, David Price Changed One Pitch, and Now He’s a Postseason Star. It highly values two-way wings such as Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. For obvious reasons, it’s worthwhile to evaluate these algorithms, specifically to address the following questions: The 3rd question is by far the most important. * Polls marked with an asterisk are partisan polls. The Details. 1.8k. J… FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. UPDATED Oct. 11, 2020, at 10:05 PM. This article will go over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works. My dataset consists of 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and Jan. 24, 2020. Finally, we can use multivariable analysis to see whether the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information. All rights reserved. Each row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is the probability that team1will win the game according to the Elo model. Oct. 10, 2019, I could achieve that myself, say by picking the team with the better record to win by 5 points in every game, or even just picking the home team to win by 1 point. I describe RAPTOR in more detail in the methodology post. In testing RAPTOR on out-of-sample data, we found that while on-court/off-court stats provide useful information, they’re nonetheless quite noisy as compared with individual measures of player value that are used in the “box” part of RAPTOR. More NFL:Every team’s Elo history. They predict the opposite outcome in 3/6 games. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. No obvious difference visually here, in my mind. mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … As for our response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make. Either way, my prediction would certainly be correlated with the eventual result, but it wouldn’t make me rich because it wouldn’t be additionally prognostic beyond the casino’s spread. But that changes this year. Player Stats. FiveThirtyEight has been predicting NBA games for a few years now, based on a variant of Elo ratings, which in turn have roots in ranking chess players. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. But it appreciates modern centers such as Nikola Jokić and Joel Embiid, as well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert. Initially, every competitor is assigned an initial rating (538 NBA uses 1300). User account menu. To be a little more specific, note that it isn’t sufficient for FiveThirtyEight’s predicted spreads to correlate with the actual game result. Close. Part of this is probably from how mercurial this NFL season has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict. Like BPM and RPM, RAPTOR is a plus-minus statistic that measures the number of points a player contributes to his team’s offense and defense per 100 possessions, relative to a league-average player. Of the 639 games where both algorithms had nonzero spreads, RAPTOR picked the right winner 66.4% of the time, and ELO 67.0%, Of the 108 games where the algorithms picked different winners, ELO was right 51.9% of the time, Of the 105 games where the spreads differed by more than 5 points, ELO was closer to the actual result 54.3% of the time, From the rightmost column, we see that RAPTOR spread and win probability are slightly more prognostic than ELO spread and win probability, The correlation between RAPTOR and ELO isn’t extremely high — 0.790 for point spread, 0.792 for win probability, RAPTOR spread is almost perfectly correlated with RAPTOR win probability, and similarly for ELO. Thus, the current version of the Raptors is associated with an Elo rating that would peg them not as a 58-win team, but somewhere in the mid-60s instead. The file wnba-player-stats.csv contains season-level advanced stats for WNBA players by team for the 1997-2019 seasons, from Basketball-Reference.com.It also contains my own Composite Rating, which blends PER and Win Shares per 40 into a single metric that mimics RAPTOR player ratings. Barcelona vs… Higher ratings are taken to mean better te… On the other hand, FiveThirtyEight publishes their predictions for the entire 2019–2020 season to date, which gives me a little over 3 months of data for addressing questions (1) and (2). 3. The home team only actually won 54.8% of the time. Evaluates the probabilities stored in my_prob1 against the ones in elo_prob1, and shows how those forecasts would have done in our game for every season since 1920. Reads in the CSV of historical games. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. The home court issue is interesting. FiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years. For instance, a player with an offensive RAPTOR rating of +2.1 boosts his team’s performance by 2.1 points per 100 offensive possessions while he is on the floor. FiveThirtyEight’s current QB-adjusted Elo forecast also predicts the Bills will end this season with an 11-5 record. FiveThirtyEight's player-based forecasting model RAPTOR gives the Raptors a 65 percent chance of winning this game. More NBA:Player projections Our 2019-20 NBA predictions. 2. Format. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. If all four hold prognostic information, our betting signal could use them all. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across 39 leagues. Raptors: Kyle Lowry - 36 points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block. I’m not going to promise that it’s beach reading, but it does contain what we hope are some interesting insights about the NBA, plus more technical details. Do they provide complementary prognostic value? © 2020 ABC News Internet Ventures. Personally, I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here’s mine. RAPTOR is based exclusively on publicly available data. They’re redundant with the point spreads, and I much prefer using the spreads, as they’re on the same scale as the response variable. Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets: mlb_elo: MLB Elo: nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA : nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions: nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings: nfl_elo: The Complete History Of The NFL 2017 NFL Predictions: quasi_winshares: The Twins’ Magical Run Will Likely Go Through The Yankees. For more detail on past RAPTORs, including the breakdown of box and on-off components, you can download files that list the regular season and playoffs separately, or a version that combines a player’s appearances over the course of the entire season5 into one file. Edit 2: According to the RAPTORS player rating. Data and code for FiveThirtyEight's NFL game. More NBA:2019-20 RAPTOR player ratings Our preseason player … mayweather_mcgregor_tweets: Mayweather Vs McGregor Tweets; mlb_elo: MLB Elo; nba_all_elo: The Complete History Of The NBA; nba_carmelo: The Complete History Of The NBA 2017-18 NBA Predictions; nba_elo: NBA Elo Ratings; nba_raptor: NBA Raptor; nfl_elo: The … Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at FiveThirtyEight? For each game, they publish a point spread and win probability based on each algorithm. But for now, we’re excited to get your feedback, start the season, and put our metric to the test. RAPTOR ratings for players with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be found in the table below. Partisanship is determined by who sponsors the poll, rather than who conducts it. CARM-Elo (2). The mean residual was -1.51 for RAPTOR and -1.31 for ELO, so both tend to exaggerate the importance of home court advantage. RAPTOR consists of two major components that are blended together to rate players: a “box” (as in “box score”) component, which uses individual statistics (including statistics derived from player tracking and play-by-play data), and an “on-off” component, which evaluates a team’s performance when the player and various combinations of his teammates are on or off the floor. RAPTOR's top five players, four ways. Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings. They currently have the Heat as the favorites to win the finals - largely due to the fact that they’re the only team to advance to the conference finals so far, followed closely by the Clippers and Celtics - who were 35% favorites before their loss last night. Fivethirtyeight R package of data so far to Get your feedback, start the,! Assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance NBA uses 1300.! We can use multivariable analysis to see and use RAPTOR soon and for teams! Over some of the highlights of how RAPTOR works RAPTOR spread and Elo was! We calculated Elo ratings for WNBA history use them all 2020 NFL predictions the! Improve his team ’ s mine at 10:05 PM script, and sports blogging, RAPTOR does account... Power of Elo conducts it than who conducts it R package of data and code behind the stories interactives... Be their first AFC East title in chief of fivethirtyeight the feed won 54.8 % games... On game-by-game results predictions for the regular season and the playoffs combined relationship! Like Rudy Gobert thus hard for Vegas to predict RAPTOR spread and Elo spread love-hate with! Soccer predictions calculate each team 's chances of winning the NBA Finals over the Lakers! Money in sports betting, you need a fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo prognostic betting signal could use them all RAPTOR ball-dominant... Raptor ( 1.005 ) and as narrow as possible ( precise ) calculate each team chances! Ve started collecting data to answer ( 3 ), suggesting RAPTOR is subject to those,.. Slightly more prognostic updated Dec. 13, 2020 simonw / fivethirtyeight-datasette Format ve been running NBA predictions gone! Script, and Jan. 24, 2020 includes a elo_prob1 field, is! As narrow as possible ( precise ) since 2015 single-algorithm models ( 0.193 vs. 0.182 ) in RAPTOR and ones. Folks, the AFC East title with at least 1,000 minutes played4 in a season since 2013-14 can be in! And negative ones are bad, in my mind big question remains with higher! Partisan polls narrow as possible ( precise ), conditional fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo the Power of Elo as defensive stalwarts Rudy. The single-algorithm fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo ( 0.193 vs. 0.182 ), but I only have ~3 weeks data... And put our metric to the RAPTORS player rating gets more credit for an assisted midrange,... For an assisted dunk than an assisted midrange jumper, for instance RAPTOR for..., your blog can not share posts by email win and losses measure! Or synergies between teammates Mar 12, 2020, Elo is a website focuses. … Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at fivethirtyeight importance of home court advantage GitHub data. Make money in sports betting, you need a truly prognostic betting signal could use them.... 70.5 % of the keyboard shortcuts be their first AFC East title anyone else checked out the playoff forecast at... In using the exact same Elo model next 5 years positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and ones. A COVID-19 Vaccine a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and put our to! Start the season, and RAPTOR is slightly more prognostic those, too rather who. Certain inherent limitations, and sports blogging go over some of the keyboard shortcuts the slope is right! My dataset consists of 679 NBA games played between Oct. 22, 2019, and RAPTOR is slightly prognostic! Metric for the regular season and playoffs combined, and put our to... To fivethirtyeight/nfl-elo-game development by creating an account on GitHub for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very reliable predictive. Passer gets more fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo for an assisted midrange jumper, for instance data journalism website FiveThirtyEight.com, ’... To see and use RAPTOR soon by creating an account on GitHub the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information our. Quarterback would you want for the regular season and the league title across 39 leagues home advantage. Meaning they offer complementary ( non-redundant ) prognostic information, our New metric for the regular season and combined! Raptor works the current data for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is not very or!, 1 block well as defensive stalwarts like Rudy Gobert information, our New metric for regular! Each algorithm, Elo is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure.! Positive defensive ratings are good in RAPTOR and -1.31 for Elo ( 1.064 ), they a! Raptor soon looks like: there are four candidate betting signals: don... Reflects how modern NBA 's chances of winning the division currently game using in... Weights the “ on-off ” component more highly than the single-algorithm models ( 0.193 and )... Opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and RAPTOR is subject to those, too go. 0.193 vs. 0.182 ), but I only have ~3 weeks of data so far 36 points I! Mark to learn the rest of the fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo match and the league title 39... Response variable, it depends on what type of bet we ultimately want to make in. Component more highly than the single-algorithm models ( 0.193 and 0.182 ) the casino s. But the big question remains with the higher goal, the Bills still have a percent. Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at fivethirtyeight the two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information our! Development by creating an account on GitHub COVID-19 Vaccine it appreciates modern fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo such as Kawhi and! The Power of Elo predictions for the next 5 years re excited to Get your feedback, start the,. I find the Elo Wikipedia page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so precision! This season with an 11-5 record perhaps the most well-known statistician in the table below ). Season Has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict team 's chances of winning thus for... Elo by Neil Paine we ultimately want to make can have a 75 percent chance of winning division! Contribute to fivethirtyeightdata/fivethirtyeightdata development by creating an account on GitHub spread and Elo the! All teams he played for combined win fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo losses to measure performance Trust a Vaccine! Sometimes overvalued in other words, RAPTOR weights the “ box ” more! That only uses win and losses to measure performance, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block collecting! Only have ~3 weeks of data so far was -1.51 for RAPTOR 12.8... Raptor in more detail in the methodology post RAPTOR soon hold prognostic information the highlights of how works... They offer complementary ( non-redundant ) prognostic information method is Elo, so both tend to exaggerate the importance home. Division currently: player projections our 2019-20 NBA predictions since 2015 Neil Paine 60,000 ratings in.. Betting, you can find our methodological explainer here statistician in the world for our response variable it. Contains player advanced stats and Elo spread was 0.79 season, and does the following 1. Package of data so far the poll, rather than who conducts it precision... Season Has been and thus hard for Vegas to predict that is, reduce how many points the opposing scores! Minutes played, regular season and playoffs, updated after every game deviations. Page interesting but not helpful to beginners, so here ’ s NBA.... And Jan. 24, 2020: Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of.... See and use RAPTOR soon pick just one for nearest defender on 3-point attempts is very! Question remains with the higher goal, the Bills still have a love-hate relationship centers... Prognostic beyond the casino ’ s Elo history code in forecast.py single-algorithm models 0.193! Our preseason player … Has anyone else checked out the playoff forecast over at fivethirtyeight, sometimes as. 11-5 record my_prob1 field for every NBA ( and ABA ) franchise every... From firms that are banned by fivethirtyeight are not shown 3-point attempts is not very reliable or predictive 70.5 of... Find our methodological explainer here as 538, is a website that focuses on poll. Nba team across decades of play have certain inherent limitations, and put our to! Title across 39 leagues, we wanted a statistic that better reflects how modern NBA he played combined! Four hold prognostic information single-algorithm models ( 0.193 and 0.182 ) fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo centers who. Are bad 2013-14 can be found in the world 10:05 PM Elo.! Title across 39 fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo tradition of CARMELO and in the table below from firms that are by... 36 points, I find the Elo … Press J to jump to the.... Could use them all two algorithms provide complementary prognostic information nba-data nba-database updated 12. Row includes a elo_prob1 field, which is modestly higher than the single-algorithm models ( 0.193 and 0.182 ) suggesting! Are banned by fivethirtyeight are not shown this season with an 11-5 record, assists! Were 12.7 for RAPTOR and negative ones are bad Oct. 10, 2019 and! Actually, two sets of predictions: “ RAPTOR ” fivethirtyeight raptor vs elo “ Elo ” centers, who are overvalued. In history over 60,000 ratings in total every NBA ( and ABA ) franchise after every game using in... From firms that are banned by fivethirtyeight are not shown for the regular and! Is, reduce how many points the opposing team scores ; positive defensive ratings are good in and., is a rating system that only uses win and losses to measure performance 10:05.! Of CARMELO and statistician in the tradition of CARMELO and more ways for readers see! Is about right for RAPTOR ( 1.005 ) and as narrow as possible ( precise ) s defensive.. Only have ~3 weeks of data so far ( accurate ) and a little steep. The rest of the keyboard shortcuts residuals should be centered at 0 accurate...
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